Today, India as a nation is in a state of churn. And the Armed Forces are in the news for all sorts of reasons - from the Rafale deal to the restructuring of the Indian Army. Many are yet to come to terms with the announcement that our army will soon depart from the organisational structures we had inherited from our British colonial legacy, to pave the way for a leaner and stealthier fighting force, apparently better prepared to deal with wars of the future. However, many within the serving and Veterans community are yet to figure out the details of how this vision will be implemented. 
The challenges of dealing with Pakistan over Kashmir are yet to be resolved by successive governments. There is no blue print to deal with the Kashmir issue - only lots of promises and hollow rhetoric. So the situation remains the same over the years. Since large scale conventional wars in the present context is quite unlikely, we have to better reorient our forces to endlessly fight proxy-wars. And cyber warfare is emerging to be a new dimension in national security. It is about time we built a new robust corps within our Armed Forces, of cyber warriors, to counter this imminent threat.
In all this, the role of the Ministry of Defence (MoD) is of great importance. But with virtually all roads on national security leading to the NSA's office, there is a view that the MoD could soon be left with routine administrative matters. And as its bureaucracy is averse to any major engagement - beyond those they have to undertake – with the service brasshats on strategic issues, perhaps the MoD could engage with experienced Veterans and domain experts on deputation.

The year 2021 began with a bang – quite literally. Major upheavals in the international scenario were witnessed, beginning with the violent pro-Trump mob that laid siege to the US Capitol Building, tension over Taiwan as China conducted military and naval manoeuvres around the island and the farmer’s protest in India amidst our standoff with China in Ladakh. With the recent dis-engagement process begun in Ladakh between the two armies, we have yet to see how it unfolds in the near future. 

This issue comes at an epochal moment in the world where a pandemic has forced all nations to face, at varying levels, the same challenge. But with Great Power rivalry still persistent, frictions between their camps has set the tone for a new Cold War. The Ladakh standoff between the Indian Army and People’s Liberation Army (PLA) is a result of this phenomenon, unprecedented in the scale of Chinese incursions. Apparently Coronavirus-induced medical concerns affected even the military's functioning, as a cancelled annual Indian exercise in Ladakh is said to have allowed the Chinese build up. 

India that was bogged down by an economic recession that is worsened by the lockdown. The subsequent heart wrenching plight of the daily wagers and the migrant labour crisis has added to the challenges of simultaneously checking the infection in a record-public health effort. Thus the central government could do little to focus on the military front. The Chinese saw this chance and moved quickly. This has challenged ‘deterrence’ that had prevented conventional wars between rival powers. What the future holds for global affairs in general and the Indian security situation in particular, is what we examine in this issue.

As the country celebrated its 71st Republic Day with yet another grand parade displaying it’s military and technological might, the challenges within and outside the country have become greater, with a host of issues that are drawing upon our diplomatic skills, which if not tackled deftly, will weaken India’s global standing. It is a combination of the criticism over the lockdown in J&K – which has its own merit – and Pakistan drawing the mileage it can from the US, just when New Delhi thought it was on a winning streak globally.
 
The lockdown in J&K and the NPR-NRC-CAA issue saw the government now coming under fire from even the international community – late last year a US Congressional committee held a hearing on alleged human rights violations in J&K, followed by the UK’s Labour Party’s resolution criticizing the action and lastly, the recent series of resolutions of various Members of European Parliament (MEP) on the CAA, calling it discriminatory and segregationist. This was followed by Pakistan escaping the Financial Action Task Force’s (FATF) ‘Blacklist’ – after being in the ‘Grey List’ – when it was found compliant on 14 of the 27 actions to curb terror funding and financing, aided by the softening of western positions on the country, and China’s long running effort to get it off the hook. This has significantly weakened India’s narrative against Pakistan’s support to non-state terror actors, and Islamabad’s clever diplomacy to avoid debilitating economic sanctions that come with Blacklisting.

As we start the New Year, there is considerable tension within the country, following the public outrage against the passage of the Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA). What is evident is that PM Modi’s government hadn’t quite expected the resistance to the CAA to be as violent. Hopefully, the government’s explanations should calm tempers, though the jury is still out of this one. An added fallout could be the questions that have been raised about the Modi government’s intent, not just amongst the critics of India, with Pakistan in the forefront, but also among observers in the western world. And though the government has contained the diplomatic fallout by MEA’s efforts, the world is still watching.

For the services however, the Cabinet (CCS) approval of the post of Chief of Defence Staff (CDS), is the single biggest step – albeit in a long line of several such hitherto demands towards military reforms –   concerning the Armed Forces, to synergise them better for operational efficacy in our changing times, and for more sensible use of our limited resources to modernise for the future. Nations – especially China – have already implemented other complementing reforms like reorganizing their militaries in theatre commands, perfecting their warfighting doctrines through frequent exercises and war games, supported by a staggering level of defence modernization and backed by its rapidly advancing techno-industrial defence manufacturing base soon to be on par with the US and Russia in a few years. India fares poorly here.

As the year 2019 comes to a close, both at home and in the neighbourhood, military matters and military men are in the news. While our politicians had upset our Veterans in particular, after Rajya Sabha Marshals were found wearing military-type safari suits, some saw it as a brazen attempt to appropriate the respect that our military men have earned, while for others it was plain ignorance about the sanctity of military uniforms. It took a sharp outrage from the retired fraternity for the government to withdraw the uniforms. While this action was seen as an appropriation of the military’s distinguished standing in our society, but it can also be attributed to the decades-old confusion about the importance the military accords to its uniforms. Over the years, it has passively accepted the ‘copycat’ styles adopted by the paramilitary and police forces on Army-style patterned uniforms and rank badges.

Coming as it did, with recent reports that the Defence Accounts Department was found to be recovering pension from the accounts of retiring soldiers from the Corps of Electrical and Mechanical Engineers (EME) for the non-production of Option Certificates, it has upset our Veterans further. Unmindful about soldiers of the arm being unable to access the same owing to their attachments with various other army units and being away from their parent units most of the time, members of the DAD seem to be under a firm notion that it is their duty to save money even if it means denying a soldier his rightful dues. These persons are wary of interpreting any provision to the advantage of soldiers for the fear that such an action might make them appear to be harming the interests of the exchequer!

As this edition comes into your hand, the implementation of the government’s decision of the abrogation of Article 370 and the formal division of the state of J&K into two Union Territories (UT) would have taken place. This action of New Delhi has stumped Pakistan in particular, and also sends an aggressive reminder to its mentor China, that India is unwilling to accept its grand manipulative designs. In the backdrop of Pak-China nexus, New Delhi chose to send 27 EU lawmakers for a visit to that Valley that led to Pakistan stepping up its terror attacks on unarmed and innocent civilians. This act of terrorism on mere unarmed labourers and apple traders was Pakistan’s way to reinforce its stamp on the minds of its sympathizers in the Valley that it has not lost the plot completely, and will continue to use violent means to incite unrest in the valley.  

Yet the focus of this edition centres around the third player in the Jammu and Kashmir region: China.  The November 2019 edition illuminates the dynamics of the recent engagement between Chinese President Xi Jinping and Indian PM Narendra Modi, leading us to ask, “Is India wooing China?” This is particularly when China has made it known that its loyalties lay with our arch-rival Pakistan. Both economic power houses expressed in their respective statements that they were open to continuing their healthy economic competition in a presently multipolar world.

The abrogation of Article 370 in J&K has created a new equation not only between Delhi and the Kashmiris, but also displayed the support India can get globally, if it takes bold steps to alter the legacy of its past, constitutionally. While critics of this move have found little support in India, leaving them isolated from the mainstream narrative, major global powers have come forth in support of India, citing it as India's internal matter. 
The super-powers are watching the developments in South Asia with utmost attention and seriousness, as Pakistan's baseless allegations against India, finds little support. Add to it India's deft diplomatic moves like its assertions to take back POK and a concerted campaign to project its new offensive stance supports the view that India is finally willing to stand up for itself.  
This has left Pakistan rattled even as it stands guilty of dividing POK and enforcing demographic changes there. And the oft-touted threat of a 'nuclear war' which Pakistan's PM Imran Khan made recently, is contestable and has in the bargain revealed that it is an irresponsible nuclear weapon state. Pakistan is in a trance and stands checkmated. We examine this nuclear theme in this edition from our articulate Veteran contributors, giving an incisive military perspective. 
The government meanwhile continues to inconvenience Veterans, after the army was reported considering shutting down ECHS polyclinics meant for Ex-Servicemen, beginning with the ones under the Southern Command, and assigning military hospitals there for ESMs' treatment. We show how this would be a finishing blow to not only Veterans amidst the slew of let downs over pension and pay demands, but also to the Army medical infrastructure, which is already swamped with treating serving personnel. Whatever may be the cost-saving compulsions of the government, it will cement troops' view that they will be cast aside upon retiring.

August has been a busy month for those of us who are commentators on national security issues. First, there was the bold political move that in one stroke did away Article 370 in J&K. It took everyone by surprise, most of all those who had made an industry out of Kashmir's special status on both sides of the LoC. And the crocodile tears shed by Pakistan, had few takers in world capitals. And then, as tensions ran high on the LoC, the RM, Rajnath Singh, suggested that India's stand of no first use (NFU) of nuclear weapons could change. All this left the Pakistanis stunned.
Abrogating Article 370 in context of Jammu & Kashmir was a historical event to undo the legacy of Pandit Nehru. PM Modi's decision to do so signals a new set of initiatives to deal not only with Pakistan's claims on Kashmir, but also China's land grab in Ladakh that we have been silent about since the 1950s. And as Pakistan began its sabre rattling to draw the Americans into this bilateral issue, the Raksha Mantri Rajnath Singh's statement on India's post Pokhran test guarantee of the nuclear No First Use (NFU), by stating: “What happens in future, depends on the circumstances,” seemingly aimed at Pakistan, has further blown a hole through Pakistan's calculations. India too will need to make substantial changes to its existing nuclear structures, if it goes this way.
But it was the Prime Minister's announcement on Independence Day, that the Indian armed forces will soon have a Chief of Defence Staff (CDS), ending the long wait on this issue that has been tossed about for at least two decades, if not more. But more than speculating who would be heading this position, it is important to debate what would be role of the CDS, and what changes we will need to make to the existing structures. We examine this topic in detail this edition.

Historically, there has been a covenant between the soldier and his state that ensures that a soldier would put his life or his limbs at risk, to go beyond the call of duty, in the belief that his state will look after him should he die or become disabled. That trust has most recently been shattered, in the first major note of disappointment for the Faujis with the second tenure of the NDA government, with the news that the pension of our Disabled Soldiers will be taxed. 
In yet another case of the insensitive broad-banding of all those in receipt of a disability pension, has upset many of our Veterans, who have struggled to cope with life and still lived with dignity despite being handicapped. Some had chosen to serve on, and pass every test they were subjected to, rising to become Generals, despite their amputated limbs. They are in particular, anguished at the insensitiveness of the move. 
The Raksha Mantri has tweeted that he will look into this issue, but Nirmala Sitharaman, the former Defence Minister and now Finance Minister, had tweeted that it was Army HQ that recommended the pension of Disabled Soldiers be taxed. The media reported that the Army's reaction came hours after Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman's office tweeted a letter, saying unscrupulous personnel have gained from disability benefits provided by the government to disabled soldiers. An official twitter handle of the Indian Army tweeted that as “officers on grounds of lifestyle diseases have been availing this disability pension, hence tax the ones who have retired full term.”

The definitive majority obtained by the BJP in the recent Lok Sabha elections will now give the second time Prime Minister, Narendra Modi, the freedom to implement his ambitious strategy to put India in the league of big powers. But the jury is still out on how much he can achieve. In his last tenure, his deliveries at many levels fell below the promises he had made. Even then, the majority of the voters wanted him back as he and his party was seen to have a plan for India's future, while the opposition parties only wanted to stall Mr Modi's return without offering the country an alternative. On his return, Mr Modi announced a cabinet that could certainly deliver on a number of issues, including national security.
The need of the hour is to qualitatively improve the quality of our leadership in all fields across the country to achieve good governance, as also to address the multiple politico-military challenges, especially terrorism and insurgencies. A blueprint is needed to deal with J&K is essential to put an end to the regular deaths of good men, fighting a directionless conflict. And the same applies to those who repeatedly fall in the line of duty in the Maoist infested territories. For that, our political, military, para-military, police and state leadership must stop fighting turf battles and work together. Leadership from the top in all fields has always been and will remain a critical winning factor.

Mr Modi’s NDA government returned to power in May this year, with a clear electoral majority, in what was the world’s biggest election exercise. It also saw perhaps for the first time in recent memory, India’s apolitical Armed Forces, being dragged into the campaign rhetoric of all major parties, with matters ranging from the Rafale deal to the Balakot strikes, time and again. However, it will have to be seen, how much time  the new NDA government devotes to matters military. Also, the elections saw our Armed Forces - especially the Veterans - taking sides on key issues, leading some commentators to state that it has all led to the ‘politicisation of our Armed Forces’, an issue this edition examines.

After the concluding phases of the General Elections 2019 that witnessed an unprecedented spotlight on military issues – from border standoffs, surgical strikes, terror attacks, controversial arms deals, discontent over pay and pension issues to the contestable state of military preparedness - it would be interesting to see how such matters are addressed by a new government, which will also have to attend to everything from a fledgling economy, a runaway inflation, rising unemployment and a volatile geopolitical atmosphere.

The decision to carry out air-strikes inside Pakistan beyond the Line of Control (LOC) is a watershed in our approach towards Pakistan that has for decades pushed terrorists into India under the assumption that its nuclear umbrella prevents India from responding effectively. This is now a thing of the past, hopefully. It is tragic that many of our politicians and citizens are questioning whether the IAF did achieve their objectives in these strikes. It seems they'd rather believe Pakistan's spin doctors who are compulsive liars. Remember, they even refused to claim their army's 'Shaheeds' in the Kargil conflict. 
And while our forces responded with alacrity when a Pakistani air armada attacked across the LoC, the use of the vintage MiG-21s did also bring out the inadequacy of our military's arsenal. Despite that, their excellent training and motivation did save the day. It is ironic that the very Armed Forces that politicians swear by in their political sloganeering are left to the mercy of their grit and good luck. Thus, in this edition we've examined the air-strike in depth, with analysis and inputs from specialists in the pages inside.  We hope the policymakers will take note of what's been said and suggested.  
And as we go to press, in another major strategic achievement, India successfully tested an anti-satellite missile by shooting down a low-orbit satellite at an altitude of 300 km from earth. This makes India the fourth country to acquire such a specialised capability only after US, Russia and China. With this, we have announced that we are now ready to enter the next generation of warfare in outer space. This would mean a lot for our military capability.

The Pulwama terror attack on 14th February in J&K marks a watershed in the history of India's battle against terrorism sponsored by Pakistan. It has forced our present political dispensation to revisit the Kashmir conundrum to adopt a fresh perspective. While the national security narrative in relation to our policy towards the challenges posed by Pakistan is still in a state of flux, the NDA government knows that it must do more than make statements about it.
A slew of measures are being put in place to contain Pakistan's 'Bleed India by a thousand cuts' strategy. But now is the time to tame the bull by the horn. It is time that a task force be intitated at the central level by pooling in security experts to arrive at a workable solution. The appointment of Lt Gen Hooda by the Congress party, is an example.
The anger and frustration within common public is palpable across the country. They have stood in solidarity with the fallen soldiers. Public display of their feelings come to the fore by the myriad banners, posters, public assemblies, murmurings on social media and endorsings in various forums. It has surely become a rallying point for a greater support for our 'Faujis'. Let us hope it lasts long enough to effect a change. 
But let us not fall prey to those reactionary forces that are war-mongering and targeting Kashmiri diaspora across the country. This is a negative trend and is divisive. Any segregation of the Kashmiris will be counter-productive to the 'Idea of India'. Clubbing terrorism with a particular community is an insane idea. Our Armed Forces have led the way on this score earlier and so our politicians and their followers must learn from them to act responsibly in such situations. And while there were politicians at most funerals, sadly Mujahid Khan, a CRPF man who fought militants to death in the Valley, had no politicians at his funeral!

Even though the 70th Republic Day parade saw perhaps for the last time the wreath laying ceremony at 'Amar Jawan Jyoti' – since next year onwards, we are told, there would be a national war memorial in its place – there were two firsts on the parade. One was, the presence of 90-year-old INA Veterans for the first time, never mind the fact that they fought on the other side of the current day Indian Army units that were then under the British in World War-II. The other was awarding the prestigious Ashok Chakra for the first time to a Kashmiri, the twice decorated militant-turned-soldier L/Nk Nazir Ahmed Wani. But despite the display of some hi-end weaponry on the parade, the reality is that the bulk of our military equipment falls in the vintage category.
This begs the question: why has there been little progress in defence indigenization, despite the loud pronouncements of ‘Make in India.’? An international event – the Aero India – preceding the elections this year thus reminds us of our embarrassing tag as the world's largest weapons importer, whilst dreaming of a 'great power' status! Foreign military aircraft makers have been invited at Bengaluru to pitch the swankiest in aerospace technologies in February, in the backdrop of the nasty allegations – a new low in Indian politics – following the Rafale deal, also reflecting our humiliating failure to make our own fighter aircraft. This is contrasted by the remarkable successes of the aerospace and defence industries of other developing countries like Brazil, South Africa, and of course, China.
The staggering Chinese advances in niche areas like stealth aviation literally forced the US to resume its obscenely expensive F-22 programme that it had planned to scale down. The Chinese story forces us to question India's failure here and shows how vital scientific advancement is for both a nation's economic and military advancement.

The year 2018 ends both on a high and a low note for the political leadership – a high for the BJP-led ruling government following the order of the Supreme Court on the Rafale deal, and low for the Congress party in the opposition following the extradition of a middleman in the Agusta Westland case, approved by the earlier UPA government. And this will continue well into the next year, as the election dates approach. But in these political slugfests, our Armed Forces become a casualty, left to maintain a military posture against two nuclear armed neighbours, with increasingly obsolete weapon platforms.
Meanwhile, Kashmir also continues to spiral out of control, specially after the Pulwama incident where seven civilians were killed in their attempts to obstruct counter-terror operations and in the confrontations that followed. Pakistan has successfully trapped India in a situation where being both civilian sensitive or harsh will serve it's propaganda. Ignoring stone-pelters will embolden the terror minders who will be more brazen with terror strikes, while being hawkish will strengthen the ISI's “India's high-handed anti-Kashmiri” narrative. This leaves us few options to resolve the intractable dispute. It is well established that we need to counter Pakistan's propaganda, build up on the achievements of our Armed Forces, and give out a blueprint for Kashmir's future, but successive governments have failed to do so repeatedly. That the Kashmir imbroglio cannot be solved with purely military successes and has to be solved with a politico-socio-economic plan is obvious to us all, but little has been done about it. Why?
And on January 14, 2019, we'll observe the fifth iteration of the Veterans' Day. It was first announced by the government in 2015.

This month, on the 10th anniversary of the 26/11 attacks on Mumbai by Pakistani terrorists, questions were raised on what would be our responses now. The army chief stated 'we are better prepared now'. It is certainly an ongoing exercise, and the Indian Armed Forces are steadily getting there. Even as the Rafale debate continues, India finally joined the elite club of six nations with a fully operation nuclear submarine that now completes India's nuclear triad and its second strike capability. And the Indian Army has announced plans for radical restructuring to meet the challenges of the future – with lesser officer ranks, Integrated Battle Groups and a leaner and more battle ready force – making Pakistan's military nervous enough to issue their usual reassurances to its people.
And so the Pakistani effort to win diplomatic brownie points by announcing the plans to give our Sikh pilgrims easier access to Gurdwara Darbar Sahib; even though the proposal came from the Vajpayee government in 1999. But not everyone was convinced that the Pakistanis had best interests of the Punjabis in mind, most vocal amongst them being Capt Amarinder Singh, the Chief Minister. Faced as it is by international isolation and the CPEC turning out to be a dud, Pakistan is looking to mend fences with India, but without addressing India's core concern: that it must take its terrorists to task. In actuality, Pakistan cannot really do much: its anti-India terror machinery is both an asset and an embarrassment for them. More importantly, their army isn't capable of confronting them anymore.

The government's decision to celebrate the second anniversary of the surgical strikes of 2016, has brought in mixed reactions from across the Fauji fraternity and the political spectrum. While some have asked why wasn't the first anniversary celebrated, the others opposed to Mr Modi's NDA government say this is another pre 2019 election gimmick. But most do not dispute the fact that it is about time that all our military achievements are remembered. 
But for Pakistan the only option was to show it is still unrepentant. So it violated the ceasefire  on the LoC and tried to push in another group of terrorists under the cover of heavy firing in the Tangdhar sector of North Kashmir's Kupwara district. Though this attempt was repulsed successfully, it raises a few serious questions on how we could impose more penalties on this unrepentant rogue state on our western border. To begin with India could certainly increase the pressure on an already beleagured Pakistan, and the areas it can be put under pressure are many.
Pakistan is reeling under a serious economic crisis within and facing increasing isolation diplomatically. It's only hope lies with China and Saudi Arabia. No wonder the Pak Army Chief visited China to assure support to Beijing for the China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) that is facing increasing criticism within Pakistan. But it is the China-Pak nexus and Beijing's use of the Pakistan to keep India under pressure, that is India's long term security concern.

Even as former cricketer turned politician, Imran Khan has managed to become the Prime Minister of a beleaguered Pakistan with the backing of the army, it is still unclear how his civilian government shall shape the destiny of its people with far bigger challenges than mending ties with India on Imran Khan's agenda. The world however, still pins hope on him to stabilize the security scenario in South Asia.
Our Air Force critically needs new-generation fighter aircrafts to ramp our air-power. But the deal of purchasing Rafale aircrafts from France is getting mired in a   controversy. It is fast turning into a political slugfest with the opposition parties hurling one accusation after another at the ruling NDA dispensation, and the ruling party failing to respond to the allegations of nepotism and an overpriced deal with the same enthusiasm. The government should clear the air urgently and come out clean and not let national security not get compromised.
 The recent floods in Kerala once again highlighted the stellar role of the Indian Armed Forces in relief work into focus. Rescuing over 23,000 people, their heroic deeds shared in videos and paeans in social and mainstream media. While in times of calamity our services are talked of as gods, the moment they go back to their barracks, politicians and babus demean them with their illogical laws. It's about time they are treated at par with their non-performing and redundant civilian counterparts!

With the Pakistan Army having orchestrated the recent elections to have a civilian government of their choice in place, they'll now adopt a renewed focus on the Kashmir issue, more so as India's political leadership gets busy with the impending elections of 2019. Pakistan will be keen to undo its international isolation and upset the relative calm in the Valley of the past month or so. 
Kashmir was on the boil until the BJP pulled out from its coalition with the PDP - with an alliance that wouldn't look good prior to the elections - and enforced the long overdue Governor's rule. Kashmir now doesn't figure in the news as much. The non-state actors are on the run and there seems to be some semblance of order in the state now. But how long will this so-called normalcy prevail, will be determined by a robust Kashmir policy that must be shaped at the earliest. 
On 26th July, 'Vijay Diwas' - marking our victory in the Kargil conflict - was celebrated in parts of the country. 'Kargil' has spawned a growing trend of holding public programmes to celebrate the valour of our forces. Credit must go to the electronic media for its role in bringing the heroics of our soldiers to our homes. And now social media has helped bond our citizens and multiplied patriotic fervour across the country. But the government's initiatives of opening of Cantonment roads to the public, is also being debated in military gatherings. 
Our focus however is on the cyber threat, with internet dominating our lives. It has created off-shoots like the menace of Cyber-Jihad which threatens our nation's security. We thus have experts articulating this theme - Countering Radicalisation and Cyber Security - in depth. The army chief has stated that he has asked for solutions on how to get 'geeks' to be absorbed in the army without the trappings of a military way of life  allowing them to be a 'cyber army' within the army!

In a swift move, the break-up of BJP-PDP alliance in Jammu & Kashmir took place – as  the agenda for the 2019 elections begins to dominate Delhi's thinking now – setting out a new narrative for the Valley. This came in the wake of the temporary respite given by the government's decision to stall aggressive military operations (NICO) in the Valley during Ramzan. But the assassination of a Kashmiri editor, Shujaat Bhukari of 'Rising Kashmir' was a blow to security of human lives in Valley. Somehow, the plot was lost – more so in the absence of any plans beyond Ramzan – and it resulted in the current situation. 
Now with Governor's rule, there could be more emphasis on good governance and a freer hand to the security forces to target militants with the NIA gunning for separatist elements, and hopefully put greater pressure on those anti-national Kashmiris who have held the government to ransom. What should also emerge is the realization in the Valley who could grab this chance to opt for a new discourse over the future of Kashmir. This can be the best counter to Pakistan anti-India agenda.
But the issue that is being debated with even greater vigor in the Indian Armed Forces is the opening of Cantonment roads to all local traffic movement. This hasty move by the MoD should have been implemented by a more thorough study in a case by case basis for each Cantt premises. It is ironical that despite the current security scenario and attacks on military locations, this move will only make our Cantts more vulnerable. This is thus the focus of this edition, where we bring out the services' perspective so that the government can consider a roll-back on this 'diktat'.

As summer temperatures touch new highs across north India, temperatures within the military fraternity have risen against the Defence Ministry's diktat of opening up our cantonments to the general public. This will not only lead to another set of security challenges, but ruin the well-preserved environment in many cities where our cantonments offered some hope amidst  the rapid urbanization of modern India. The immediate question is, “Did the Raksha Mantri take consent of the services who are the key stakeholders, or was it a unilateral decision?” What has upset many in the fraternity, is why the Service Chiefs haven't spoken up on this matter? A sensible way out would be  to do a time bound, case by case study on  which cantonments areas could the public be allowed to freely trespass, and where they shouldn't. 
Even though the jury is out on the merits of the ceasefire initiative in the Valley, there has been considerable firing along the LoC, leading Pakistan to suggest that both sides should sit across the table and talk peace. As yet India's stand has been unrelenting: that talks and terror attacks cannot go on together. And in all this - between India's efforts to isolate Pakistan internationally, and  robust military response across the LoC – there are reports that the Pakistan Army chief has suggested a recalibration of Pakistan Army's traditional “Hurt India-Centric” approach. Only time will tell whether this is because of the exposé by a former PM (about 26/11) and ex-DG ISI (in a book), or is good sense finally dawning on GHQ Rawalpindi.

Prime Minister Modi's recent visit to China, for an informal summit with President Xi Jingping was a significant milestone in Sino- Indian ties. A major outcome of their talks was the issuance of instructions to their respective militaries to maintain peace along the Sino-Indian border. And though sections of the media have been sceptical of this initiative as part of Mr Modi's efforts to keep peace in our neighbourhood in view of the elections due next year, on the positive side this at least ensures some room for restraint by both Armed Forces along the borders.
However, unlike China that has turned into a major exporter of military products and platforms, India remains wedded to importing technologies its defence needs. Thus the beeline by the defence manufacturers into India as they did for the DefExpo 2018, wherein almost all companies indicated that their optimism on long‐term opportunities remains intact, but that they were disappointed with the pace of decision making on defence procurement. With the upcoming general elections in 2019, it could lead to even slower decision making. And where the government will award projects, India's private sector companies expect orders to be skewed towards DPSUs whereas decisions on large private sector contracts are likely to only be taken after the next elections.
However, a long overdue requirement has been addressed by the recent announcement that a new body, termed as the Defence Planning Committee (DPC), to get the services to work closely with the bureaucracy to address a number of key national security issues, including defence procurement. The system may work only if all involved move forward in a coordinated manner and the organisation meets at frequent intervals. If it functions akin to the Strategic Planning Group of the NSC, whose meetings are less than infrequent, then this would result in the creation of an additional elephant in government functioning.

With compulsory military service for aspirants of government employment having been recommended by the Parliamentary Standing Committee, it is now being considered as an emergency measure to fill up the shortfall of Officers and Other Ranks in our armed forces. We understand it is being considered by the Department of Personnel and Training (DoPT), a wing of government that reports to the Prime Minister. However, the jury is out on whether this suggestion will eventually be implemented.  
Another impending human resource welfare issue that has been neglected by successive governments, is that of the released SSC (Short Service Commissioned) Officers. Having served in the Armed Forces for five to ten years, they are then denied any support from the forces, despite having given their best years of their youth in voluntary military service to the nation. They certainly deserve better. There is now a movement sweeping across the nation as they unite on a common platform to take on the Govt by filing cases in our Courts. 
Meanwhile, the Govt has proposed new norms for the SSC cadre, and this will include allowing them to serve for 20 years, making them eligible for pension and ex-servicemen status. This means the officer will be out of the Army by the age of 40-42 with a pension and ample time for a second career. We await the final policy on a better deal for SSC Officers, which if cleared, will alter the available 'selection pool' above the rank of 'Colonel' in the long run.

Our army remained in the news for much of the past month, whether it was the decision of the J&K government to get the local police to file a FIR against members of 10 Garhwal Rifles or the designs of politicians to add a communal colour to the victims of terror attack on the Sanjwan camp near Jammu. In J&K, the designs of the state government that rules Kashmir in alliance with the BJP, were checked by the Supreme Court as it stayed the FIR against Major Aditya on the appeal of the army officer's father. The J&K state government's initiative drew a wedge between the army that fights on two fronts and the police - that has off late become a victim of several terror attacks – shattering the myth of a unified command in the state.
A dialogue from a Bollywood film that hit theatres last month, sums up the reasons why the Kashmir issue has been kept alive: “When a problem benefits too many people, it is no longer a problem. This Valley is an industry and keeping the problem of terrorism alive and burning in it, is the only solution for many of us.” This is indeed the core of the problem, and the army is caught in this cross-fire and has to deal with it itself.
But it is not just in the Valley or the borders that the Indian Army is busy battling all sorts of threats, but even in a metropolis like Mumbai, where the army took charge from the railway's engineers and completed three railway foot-over-bridges in record time. It not only proved that our civilian organisations lack the ability and resources to deliver on time, but it also drives home, once again, the message that our Armed Forces are an important part of nation building and in aiding civilian authorities other than disaster and relief aid. I wonder if this will energize the government to look into how they are treated viz-a-viz their civilian counterparts.

The well-orchestrated visit of Israeli Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu in January this year was a diplomatic watershed for Indo-Israeli ties. An all-weather friend, Israel has supported India in most trying times. With a long standing military cooperation, the present visit set the pace for a cohesive bi-lateral trade, science & technology, investment and arms purchase agreements. This closeness and open engagement has raised temperatures in Islamabad. It will have a definite bearing on India's relations with West Asia.
Closer home, the rogue state of Pakistan continues to get marginalized, with the US having suspended its aid, that has left Pak fuming and leaning more heavily on China. However, despite pressures, Pakistan isn't likely to mend it ways, when it comes to India. Pakistan has found its raison d'être to wage an eternal proxy war against India, even at the cost of taking their economy backwards, and losing the opportunity for growth and development. 
Thus in the Valley, Pakistan continues to create trouble through paid stone pelting mobs and by keeping the masses glued to the narrative of 'azaadi'. The recent attack on an army convoy by a mob that led the army men to open fire in self-defence killing two locals, gave reason to local politicians to call for the army's withdrawal from the Valley, in line with Pakistan's aim of preparing the Valley for secession. Also, such incidents give Pakistan the fodder to project India as the aggressor and local Kashmiris as victims, to the world. The remaining state of J&K too has to suffer because of this ongoing unrest.

Another year has passed by and it has had its highs and lows for the Faujis: with a new and a pro-active Army Chief, a new and first ever lady as Defence Minister, Sino-Indian tensions over the Dokalam stand-off at China, Pakistan's shabby handling of Cdr Jadhav's case, Lt Col Purohit getting bail and the MCOCA being dropped, and of course, the governmental apathy towards protesting Veterans who were pushed out from Jantar Mantar.
But our cover story looks at the multiple threats India faces, as with Pakistan's use of terrorists and non-state actors from across the LoC and the growing Chinese threats of incursions from across our disputed borders. It has started a new debate in Indian security circles – 'Prepare for Multi-front Threats'. A scenario though distant but can become a reality, it is certainly a threat that can destabilise India. We examine at length this theory in the ensuing pages by defence experts. It would be prudent on the part of our government to draw useful lessons from this study for our national security establishment. 
With the region, one new initiative was the 'big idea' that would reset the strategic calculations in the future; that of the Indo-Pacific as a theatre of cooperation amongst the 'Quad' of four countries: the US, Japan, Australia and India. Though still in its nascent stage, it has begun to make Beijing uneasy. For the moment, China is hoping that its OBOR initiative will provide it the counter, with Pakistan as its lynchpin. And the half-hearted US announcements for Pakistan to mend its ways, only strengthens the China-Pak nexus. And even as US remains stuck in the quagmire of Afghanistan, China has emerged as the peacemaker, as Beijing moves to a plan, while others only flounder. And India's best bet could be a stronger and effective naval presence in the Indian Ocean.

As winter sets in, the Kashmir Valley would hopefully get some respite from the combined efforts of the Pak sponsored terrorists and the anti-India separatists who continue to encourage instability by funding the stone pelting mobs that our security forces have had to battle for months on end. But in turn, the relentless anti-terrorism operations have resulted in their gunning down some 200 terrorists. However, that is only half the battle since a political solution, if ever there would be one, is so far away that there is room for optimism.
And even though we blame the Pak army for fomenting trouble in the Valley, India cannot ignore its own failures over the Kashmir issue. To that extent, US warnings to Pakistan to mend its ways carries little weight with Pakistan now, as Pakistan now hedges its bets on the Chinese bailing it out - with the CPEC - of the financial woes and its increasing diplomatic isolation. But there are a few realists in Pakistan who are willing to look at themselves in the mirror, as an essay in this issue notes. 
But Pakistan apart, China's rising ambitions in the Indian Ocean, is the next big challenge for India - the success of the Doklam standoff notwithstanding - where India would find itself confronting the Chinese more frequently in these waters. But is there a way forward apart from confrontation? Essays in this issue, offer some thoughts. One option is the emerging 'Quad' of US, Japan, Australia and India, to counter China's aggressive designs. But the question is: will India be willing to shed its usual strategic ambiguity and make a firm choice, or just muddle along? Modi-led NDA government has been keen to exploit the strategic potential of the Andaman Island chain. If so, now is the time for it.

From the Editor-at-Large
With the Doklam standoff averted and Kashmir being relatively calm, the government is in a mood for talks, having assigned an interlocutor for engaging with stakeholders in the Valley. Thus, there is hope once again, that this new national security initiative might shift the discourse from purely military responses to the insurgency, to the political domain. But the jury is still out on how soon, and how effectively, that might happen.
But a new dimension has been added to the national security challenge – the Rohingyas issue. This persecuted Muslim minority that has been fleeing the ruthless actions of the Burmese Army has swamped Bangladesh and is knocking on the doors of India. Opinion in India is however divided on how to deal with the scale of this human exodus. It thus makes it difficult for India on how to balance its national security concerns with its impressive past record of humanitarian assistance to refugees over the years.
Another welcome move of the present government is appointment of former Navy Chief, Admiral DK Joshi, as the Lt Governor of Andaman and Nicobar Islands. With China’s growing presence in Indian Ocean Region (IOR), India needs to consolidate its position here. With his past role as having headed the only tri-services command there and his understanding of the strategic importance of the Andaman & Nicobar as a forward Indian maritime position to counter China’s ambitions, he could effectively influence the decisions of the Indian government, as the US wants to lean more heavily onto India, as a partner in the IOR.

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FAUJI INDIA Magazine - November 2018

FAUJI INDIA Magazine - November 2018

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