On the precipice

A collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation may put other climate systems at risk

- AKSHIT SANGOMLA

A MAJOR OCEAN current system that helps regulate climate and weather patterns around the world may come to a halt this century, much sooner than earlier believed. The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), which moves warm ocean water from the tropics to the northern Atlantic Ocean basin, could collapse between 2025 and 2095 due to the impact of anthropogenic emissions, says a July 25, 2023 paper by scientists from the University of Copenhagen, Denmark. Based on the current rate of emissions, the collapse is likely to occur in the 2050s, the scientists say with 95 per cent confidence in the study published in Nature Communications.

If this prediction deems true, AMOC, which plays a crucial role in moderating the climate of Europe and North America and influences temperatures near the Equator, may be the first of the 16 climate tipping elements to be breached. Tipping elements are large-scale systems that influence the planet's climate and ecology, which are undergoing changes due to warming and accumulation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere from anthropogenic emissions. If these elements cross certain thresholds due to rise in temperature, changes in them will become irreversible.

AMOC's collapse could also have a cascading impact on the stability of other tipping elements and climate systems in a wider geography.

SLOWED CYCLE