THE NORTH EAST AT CROSSROADS OF SECURITY

Given the evolving nature of the threats, India has to move beyond conventional counterinsurgency in Manipur and elsewhere in the Northeast, addressing the problems covering multiple domains of politics, security, intelligence and diplomacy, argues ABHAY KRISHNA

- ABHAY KRISHNA

The Northeast has always been a complex geopolitical and strategic space, shaped by ethnic diversity, historical fault lines and external influences. The relative peace achieved in the past decade was the result of our Govt's sustained efforts focused on governance, development, security and diplomacy. However, the current ongoing turbulence is not an isolated event but rather a confluence of multiple internal and external factors converging at a critical juncture.

The civil war in Myanmar has created a dangerous security vacuum along our eastern frontier, fueling arms proliferation and cross-border insurgent movements. Regime change in Bangladesh has induced uncertainties in our bilateral equation which was getting stronger during Sheikh Hasina's governance. The persistent violence in Manipur reflects deep-seated ethnic divisions exacerbated by regional developments as also the unresolved NSCN-IM issue in Nagaland continues to sustain a gun culture which challenges the state authority.

Beyond these visible fault lines, a more insidious and sophisticated campaign is at play which falls squarely into the domain of Fifth Generation Warfare. External actors leveraging disinformation, proxy networks and cyber-influence operations are actively seeking to destabilize India's frontier regions. The fingerprints of foreign agencies with vested interests in keeping India's periphery unstable are evident in the manner narratives are being shaped and conflicts are reignited. As a result, the insurgents have found new life once again.

The Need for a Multi-Dimensional Strategy

Given the evolving nature of the threats, India has to move beyond conventional counterinsurgency in addressing the problems covering multiple domains encompassing political, security, intelligence and diplomatic dimensions.