THE IRANIAN IMPACT

India should avoid the mistakes committed by the combatants in the ongoing conflict in West Asia

- AMIT GUPTA

As the war in Iran continues, it is too early to discuss what the possible outcome will be or what the future of the Gulf states and the international system will be. What one can talk about are the tactics used by both sides and the implications for the conduct of military operations in future conflicts. So, what are the lessons that the rest of the world can take from this war?

Assassinations do not work.

The Israelis have made the wars fought since 2022 ones where assassinations play a key role, and this policy is now also being carried out by the Trump Administration in the Iran war. The logic goes that if you cut off the head of the snake, the body will wither and die. The Israelis killed the head of Hezbollah, Hassan Nasrullah, while Trump first had the Iranian general Qasim Sulemani assassinated, and more recently, was able to eliminate Iran's supreme leader. Such actions, however, have not cut the head off the snake, as seen by the resurgence of Hezbollah and the ability of Iran to fight even though it lost Ayatollah Khamenei and several members of the senior leadership on the first day of the war.

Despite this considerable setback, the Iranians have a decentralised decision-making authority in their military and, therefore, have been able to continue fighting and launching drones and missiles.

The fact is that assassinations have at best a mixed record, and India itself was a potential victim of such an attempt when Pakistan-sponsored terrorists attacked the Indian parliament in 2001 to kill senior politicians like the Prime Minister and Home Minister of the country.

India has not tried to respond in kind, recognising that a state goes to war with another state and eventual war termination has to be done with the leadership of the other country, however odious those leaders may be.