Climate change affects what we eat – and what it costs

Climate change is pushing up the prices of the food that we buy and therefore changing what we eat, writes Paul Behrens, global professor, future of food, at the University of Oxford.

- writes Paul Behrens, global professor, future of food, at the University of Oxford.

One-third of UK food price increases in 2023 resulted from climate change, according to research by agricultural economists. This extra cost contributed to food price inflation and the UK's cost-of-living crisis.

By ratcheting up food prices and driving food insecurity, the climate crisis already affects the stability of societies around the world. Several studies have found that shocks to the food supply have been increasing and that climate-related losses of food in major breadbasket regions (the areas of the world that produce most food) are likely to increase.

These projections often omit difficult-to-model consequences like the spread of crop pests and damage to infrastructure. Real-world impacts could be worse than those that can be modelled.

Studies predict significant food price increases every year in the coming decade. Food industry professionals are raising the alarm to food vulnerabilities unprecedented in scale and variety. In the long term, climate change could make it impossible to grow food in one-third of current food production areas.