THE THING THAT IS MOST MISUNDERSTOOD ABOUT NARENDRA MODI

Most assessments of Modi's electoral success are wrong. What keeps him in power is crafting of a new welfare state model.

- HINDOL SENGUPTA

To understand why Narendra Modi will win again, if he chooses to contest, in 2029, you have to look at what is failing across Europe, the US, and especially the UK.

Reams have been written about the unbeaten track record of India's now three-term Prime Minister but the analysis has mostly focused either on social and ideological campaigns or astute construction of an electoral machinery that is agile and responsive. But this is only one part of the story.

The part that remains understudied is the construction of a new welfare state by Modi which has emerged as an alternative to the Western welfare state model. In 2019, I wrote the first paper on this for the Observer Research Foundation ("The economic mind of Narendra Modi"), and since then the argument has become exponentially stronger. As the Western welfare model that sustained Western democracies since the end of the Second World War when the term "welfare state" spearheaded by the Labour Party postwar government and the Beveridge Report (which created the National Health Service) crumbles, India is showing the future of what a new welfare model could look like.

FROM A PATRONAGE SYSTEM TO A LEAK-PLUGGING MODEL

The Modi era has been defined by a paradigm shift from a patronage-based, leaky welfare system to one that is targeted, transparent, and technology-driven. Enough has been said about the benefits of digitisation in this process. But its core elements are worth noting: streamlining and digitizing delivery (Direct Benefit Transfer, Aadhaar, JAM Trinity), centring the Prime Minister's Office in welfare attribution, and scaling eligibility outreach and central budgeting for flagship schemes, widening both urban and rural nets.