How Vladimir Putin Could Benefit From Israel's War With Iran

The good news emerging for Vladimir Putin, however, is that following years of two-track diplomacy, he has positioned himself as both a friend to Israel's Benjamin Netanyahu and to the Iranian leadership.

- JOHN DOBSON

On the surface, Russia appears to be having a torrid time in the Middle East. First Syria, now Iran. The fall of Bashar al-Assad last year was a major blow to Russia's reputation as a reliable ally. Since its military intervention in Syria in 2015, Moscow's propaganda machine had positioned Russia as a guarantor of stability and protector of dictatorial regimes from external pressure and internal threats. The clear message from Moscow had always drawn parallels between Assad and the fates of American allies in the region, for example Hosni Mubarak, in an attempt to set the Kremlin against an "unreliable" Washington.

Seeking to increase its influence in the region, Moscow spent much of 2024 negotiating a bilateral trade and security partnership with Tehran. In the final draft, for the next 20 years the two countries agreed to expand economic cooperation, mitigate the impact of US sanctions, and strengthen military and political partnerships. The agreement was designed to govern relations between Russia and Iran, covering various areas such as defence, counter-terrorism, energy, finance and culture. Moscow was caught off guard by the overthrow of Assad's government in Syria on 8 December last year, an event that hastened the formal agreement. The document was authorised by President Vladimir Putin and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian on 17 January. Putin then signed the treaty into Russian law on 21 April, the Iranian Parliament ratified it on 21 May and the all-important Iranian Guardian Council on 11 June. Israel attacked Iran overnight on the 12th.