The US Defused an India-Pakistan War. Can China Do the Same?

Beijing is not without leverage and has much at stake in regional stability. But it must also maintain a careful balancing act between its two South Asian neighbours.

- Tan Dawn Wei

For four days, earlier in May, South Asia teetered dangerously on the brink of all-out war after a terrorist attack in India-administered Kashmir reignited decades-old animosity between nuclear-armed India and Pakistan.

Tit-for-tat clashes involving drones, missiles and fighter jets came to a halt after a surprise intervention by US President Donald Trump.

As the smoke clears amid an uneasy truce, the role of China is emerging more clearly into view. While overshadowed by the US, it is by no means without clout as Pakistan's patron and as a major military power.

How it chooses to respond in the event of a new conflagration could determine the course of events. But first China has to recalibrate its balancing act.

While China's arms makers have been given an unexpected publicity boost by the combat debut of the J-10C fighter jet – an export model of the plane was the star attraction at the Chinese booth at an air show in Malaysia this week—the overall result of the South Asian clash for China is mixed.

Even though China has not officially piped up about how Pakistan has benefited from its weapons, India would surely not have been pleased with the help given nor the outcome.

A think-tank under India's Ministry of Defence claimed recently that Chinese support for Pakistan went beyond planes and missiles to include critical satellite support as well.

When asked by reporters, the Chinese Foreign Ministry did not answer the question directly, only reiterating that it is ready to "play a constructive role" to secure a lasting ceasefire.

China's patron-client relationship with Pakistan is well known, but to have it put under the spotlight is a complication Beijing could probably do without. It must now tend to its difficult, fragile relationship with New Delhi that had only recently been on the mend.