Tailwind for Ishiba to form next govt, remain as Japan PM

He is likely to get the largest vote share in Diet session with fragmented opposition

- Walter Sim

TOKYO - As the dust settles in Japan a week after the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) lost its majority in the general election, Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba appears to have won a reprieve in the battle for influence ahead of a special Parliament session expected on Nov 11.

The odds are that the 67-year-old, who just became prime minister on Oct 1, will stay on as leader of a minority government and escape the fate of becoming Japan's shortest-lived leader. This is because he will likely get the largest vote share when Parliament convenes to choose the prime minister, with his party having the largest presence and a fragmented opposition unwilling to work together.

In remarks on Nov 1 to mark his first month in office, Mr Ishiba said: "We have heard the voters' harsh verdict loud and clear. We will carefully manage the government from now on, with the understanding of many parties."

A minority government would complicate the passage of legislation, given the ruling party's need for the buy-in of smaller parties. However, this arrangement could offer some stability for Asia's second-largest economy.

But Mr Ishiba will nonetheless have to walk a tightrope: A fresh scandal could easily ignite opposition efforts to bring down his administration via a no-confidence motion.

He will also need to rebuild public trust that has eroded, according to media surveys taken after the general election.

A Kyodo News poll conducted on Oct 28 and 29 saw the Cabinet's approval rating dropping to 32.1 per cent, a plunge of 18.6 percentage points from the Oct 1 and 2 survey. Another poll by the Yomiuri newspaper showed approval at 34 per cent, down 17 percentage points from the previous survey.

Following protocol, Mr Ishiba's Cabinet will formally resign on the morning of Nov 11, before the special Diet session to choose the prime minister.