PM Ishiba remains firmly in driver's seat despite setback in Tokyo assembly vote

He is unlikely to be challenged as his LDP rivals don't see situation favourable for leadership change

- Walter Sim

TOKYO - Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba has been dismissed as a seat-warmer, as he leads a minority government whose Cabinet ratings have been in a perpetual slump since he took office in October 2024.

His ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) also suffered a historic rout at the Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly election on June 22. The poll is regarded as a bellwether for national politics, and a prelude to an Upper House election on July 20.

"We received a very harsh verdict. We need to thoroughly analyse which of our messages failed to resonate with voters, and apply those lessons, moving forward," Mr Ishiba said on June 23.

Past Tokyo elections have foreshadowed national election outcomes and triggered leadership resignations, and domestic media outlets are reading the tea leaves to find out how the June 22 drubbing might hurt the LDP come July.

Even so, experts believe Mr Ishiba remains firmly in the driver's seat, having displayed remarkable staying power even though minority and coalition governments in Japan tend to be very short-lived.

Mr Ishiba is also unlikely to be challenged within the LDP as his rivals in the party do not think the timing or ground sentiment is favourable for a leadership change, given cost-of-living concerns and geopolitical uncertainties.

The next LDP presidential election has to be held only by September 2027.

Led by Mr Ishiba, the LDP bridged the political divide and steered the Diet to pass 58 out of 59 government Bills during the 150-day regular Diet session that closed on June 22, making concessions and compromises with different opposition parties in exchange for their support.

The ratio is comparable with those of previous years - in 2024, for example, 61 out of 62 Bills were passed.