Middle East crisis crosses milestone with face-off between Israel, Iran

It is uncertain if Tehran will avoid further attacks on Jewish state

- Jonathan Eyal

Iran's state-run media is downplaying the significance of Israel's latest air strikes.

Most of the official reports coming out of Iran claim that although the country suffered "limited damage", its military and economy are, supposedly, hardly affected by the attacks.

It will take many more hours, if not days, before the full extent of the damage inflicted by Israel's air offensive becomes known. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps - the mainstay of the Iranian government - declared it a "crime" to post photos or news about Iranian installations that may have been hit. Culprits will be "dealt with decisively", it warned.

Yet, even at this early stage, it is evident that Israel's strikes were closely coordinated with the United States, that they were heavy and that their main objective was to cripple Iran's capacity to hit at Israel in future.

Since Iran fired 181 accurate ballistic missiles at Israel on Oct 1, a robust Israeli response was inevitable; the only imponderables were the extent of this retaliation and its precise timing.

The unusually long delay of more than three weeks between the Iranian strike and the Israeli response is primarily due to the intense negotiations between American and Israeli military planners.

The Israelis started this debate by signalling their intent to hit the core of both the Iranian economy and its military by striking Iran's oil installations and nuclear facilities at the same time.

However, this was likely merely a negotiating gambit, since the Israelis must have known from the start that the Americans would veto such ideas as only likely to destabilise the Middle East to an unacceptable level.