Greater volatility expected for Asia if Trump returns to power

Trade policy uncertainty could adversely hit China, highly open economies like S’pore

- Angela Tan

Increased protectionism, US-China decoupling and an "America First" foreign policy are some of the concerns Asia investors are grappling with as they brace themselves for the possibility of Donald Trump returning to the White House.

This is more likely after Super Tuesday on March 5 the biggest day so far in the US presidential election calendar - confirmed that the November election is set to pitch Trump against incumbent Joe Biden.

Ms Sonal Varma, Nomura's Singapore-based chief economist for India and Asia ex-Japan, said Asia would be impacted by lower growth if Trump is re-elected.

"Geo-economic fragmentation hurts global trade, a key lifeline for Asia's open, export-oriented economies," she said, adding that more trade-policy uncertainty also weighs on business investment and confidence. Within Asia, there will be winners and losers, the Nomura economist said.

China would be most adversely impacted, given that it is in a position of direct confrontation with the US on multiple fronts. Highly open economies such as Singapore, Hong Kong and South Korea would also be negatively affected.

On the other hand, India and parts of South-east Asia could benefit from the new growth opportunities created by diversification and the reconfiguration of global value chains.

The build-up to and the outcomes of the election would be consequential to asset markets globally, US-China relations and the returns on equities, particularly Chinese, said Mr Kinger Lau, chief China equity strategist and managing director at Goldman Sachs.