China's diplomatic year: A calculated gamble

As 2025 draws to a close, Beijing can claim an impressive series of soft-power victories that have reshaped global perceptions of Chinese technological prowess and diplomatic influence.

- Tan Dawn Wei

Honour guards placing floral tributes during a ceremony to mark China's National Memorial Day for Nanjing Massacre Victims in the Chinese city on Dec 13. PHOTO: AFP

(PHOTO: AFP)

Yet China's strong reaction to Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's comments on Taiwan threatens to squander some of these gains, revealing the persistent tension between Beijing's aspirations to lead a multipolar world order and its reflexive resort to economic and military coercion when its core interests are challenged.

Up until the high-profile spat in November, it had been a good year for Beijing and its international image. There was the "DeepSeek moment" early in the year when the Chinese startup shocked the world with its low-cost, powerful large language model that rattled tech stocks and humbled the American Al industry. It was a technological milestone that surprised sceptics and challenged the assumption that US export controls had permanently capped China's innovative capacity.

When US President Donald Trump unleashed tariffs on nearly every country in the world in April, China was the only one with the chutzpah to stand up to the bullying and matched Mr Trump's punitive moves with targeted, smart countermeasures.

In that battle, Beijing was widely considered to have come out ahead, especially after it wielded the rare-earth card that was a lifeline to American defence and high-tech industries.

Instead of the economic catastrophe some predicted, China navigated the turbulence with calculated patience. After months of escalating tensions that saw tariffs briefly spike to 145 per cent, China secured a deal with Mr Trump in October that reduced the fentanyl tariff from 20 per cent to 10 per cent and suspended heightened reciprocal tariffs for a year.