China Economic Pickup Tops Forecasts Before Tariff Pain Deepens

Figures suggest economy bottoming out, but policy stimulus still needed, say analysts

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BEIJING - Consumption and industrial production in China grew faster to start the year, in an upswing that exceeded forecasts as US President Donald Trump's tariffs threaten exporters in the world's largest trading nation.

Retail sales increased 4 per cent in January-February from the same period a year earlier, the National Bureau of Statistics said on March 17, exceeding economist forecasts and accelerating from a 3.7 per cent gain in December.

Industrial output rose 5.9 per cent, higher than the median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of analysts. Growth in fixed-asset investment picked up to 4.1 per cent.

The retail data is in a "nice and comfortable range", said Dr Helen Qiao, chief economist for greater China for Bank of America Global Research. "That probably implies that further policy stimulus is still warranted. At the same time, it is not too weak that people would worry before the policy kicks in."