Australians' appetite for change at May 3 polls hit by global instability

Trump's tariffs top concern among voters; PM Albanese's Labor likely to stay in power

- Jonathan Pearlman

SYDNEY - Mr Anthony Albanese is on track to become the first Australian prime minister to be re-elected in more than 20 years, as global uncertainties and US President Donald Trump's chaotic leadership dampen Australians' appetite for change.

Despite voter anger over the rising cost of living, opinion polls indicate that Prime Minister Albanese's Labor Party is set to defeat the Liberal-National Coalition in the May 3 election, though it may not gain a parliamentary majority.

Labor leads the Coalition by 52.6 per cent to 47.4 per cent, according to polling averages compiled by The Poll Bludger website. A survey released on May 1 by YouGov found Labor will win 84 seats and a clear majority in the 150-seat House of Representatives, with 47 seats for the Coalition, 14 for independents, three for the Greens and two for other minor parties.

However, no party is expected to gain a majority in the state-based Senate.

As in Canada, where the ruling Liberal Party staged a spectacular political comeback and defeated the Conservative Party in its April 28 general election, Mr Trump has been credited with helping Labor's revival in Australia.

Mr Kos Samaras, director of strategy and analytics at polling firm RedBridge, told The Straits Times that Mr Trump's tariffs and unpopularity in Australia will be the "No. 1" issue affecting people's votes at the coming election.

He said voters have been turned off by Coalition leader Peter Dutton because he had adopted Trump-like policies such as cutting the public service and opposing work from home for civil servants - policies that he later abandoned.

"Trump is the No. 1 reason as to what is shaping voters' decisions in our polling. They view Trump as a destructive force that will impact them," said Mr Samaras.

"Unfortunately for the Coalition, Dutton had an association with Trump as a brand. The minute he went into that space, it basically sealed the deal."