Almost any outcome of the war carries risks for region

Even countries such as Saudi Arabia or the UAE, which used to be at the forefront of hostility to Iran, toned down their opposition.

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In 2023, China even brokered the restoration of diplomatic relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran. In practice, however, the Chinese were merely benefiting from reconciliation efforts that had been going on in the Gulf for several previous years.

Earlier this year, Gulf states publicly declared their opposition to any US attack on Iran, even vowing to close their airspace to US jets. So, it came as a considerable shock to them that the instant reward for their declared neutrality was the biggest bombardment on their land in modern history.

Iran's leadership, believing its regime faced an existential threat, had every incentive to widen the conflict in hopes of forcing Washington to reconsider its campaign. And so, the Gulf states were not only treated as collateral damage in the confrontation; instead, they were Iran's primary target.

Furthermore, in the so-called 12-day war in June 2025, Israel destroyed most of Iran's long-range missile arsenal. As a result, the Iranians possessed medium and shorter-range missiles, which could only be fired at their Arab neighbours. Iranian strategic calculations and military necessities combined, with lethal consequences for the Gulf countries.

GRAVE CONSEQUENCES