'Un-uniting' Russia and China not easy

Is the U.S. angling for a repeat of the Sino-Russian split? In a 31 October 2024 interview with right-wing pundit Tucker Carlson, Donald Trump argued that the United States under Joe Biden had, in his mind erroneously, pushed China and Russia together.

- LINGGONG KONG

Is the U.S. angling for a repeat of the Sino-Russian split? In a 31 October 2024 interview with right-wing pundit Tucker Carlson, Donald Trump argued that the United States under Joe Biden had, in his mind erroneously, pushed China and Russia together. Separating the two powers would be a priority of his administration. "I'm going to have to un-unite them, and I think I can do that, too," Trump said.

Since returning to the White House, Trump has been eager to negotiate with Russia, hoping to quickly bring an end to the war in Ukraine. One interpretation of this Ukraine policy is that it serves what Trump was getting at in his comments to Carlson. Pulling the U.S. out of the European conflict and repairing ties with Russia, even if it means throwing Ukraine under the bus, can be seen within the context of a shift of America's attention to containing Chinese power.

Indeed, after a recent call with Russian President Vladimir Putin, Trump told Fox News: "As a student of history, which I am, and I've watched it all — the first thing you learn is you don't want Russia and China to get together."

The history Trump alludes to is the strategy of the Nixon era, in which the U.S. sought to align with China as a counterbalance to the Soviet Union, encouraging a split between the two communist entities in the process.

Yet if creating a fissure between Moscow and Beijing is indeed the ultimate aim, Trump's vision is, I believe, both naive and shortsighted. Not only is Russia unlikely to abandon its relationship with China, but many in Beijing view Trump's handling of the Russia-Ukraine war — and his foreign policy more broadly — as a projection of weakness, not strength.