Oil sans Russia

India's confidence in navigating a potential cut-off in Russian oil supplies due to looming secondary sanctions reflects not only geopolitical pragmatism but also the hard lessons of energy security learned over decades.

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At a time when Western powers are tightening the screws on Moscow, India's Petroleum and Natural Gas Minister Hardeep Singh Puri has projected a calm assurance that the country can weather disruptions – an assertion that deserves closer inspection. To begin with, India's heavy reliance on Russian crude, which currently accounts for about 35 per cent of its oil imports, is a relatively recent development catalyzed by post-Ukraine war discounts and flexible payment terms. It is not built on deep strategic alignment but rather short-term economic advantage. That distinction matters when evaluating India's ability and willingness to pivot away from Moscow if the cost of association becomes too high. Mr. Puri's statement that India now sources oil from around 40 countries – up from 27 – indicates a proactive diversification strategy already in motion. Emerging suppliers like Guyana, and consistent pla