Taiwan's Tough Talk Raises the Cross-Strait Temperature

POLITICAL FUTURES

- IAN BREMMER

China has been squeezing Taiwan for years. President Xi Jinping has made reunification a key pillar of his nationalist agenda and ordered the People's Liberation Army (PLA) to be ready to seize the island by 2027. But since Taiwan's pro-independence president William Lai took office in January 2024, the vise has tightened, with air and naval incursions into Taiwan's air defense zone a daily occurrence.

Early on, President Lai responded cautiously and avoided riling Beijing unnecessarily, seeing no reason to jeopardize Taiwan's strong economy and his high approval ratings. But Lai's rhetoric against the mainland has become increasingly confrontational in recent months.

On March 13, he delivered a speech in which he proposed 17 steps Taiwan should take to counter threats posed by China and its bid to infiltrate the Taiwanese government and society. And since June 22, Lai has delivered three of 10 planned "national unity" speeches asserting Taiwan's centuries-long cultural, political and historical independence from China, urging citizens to unite against communism and fight against the threat of Chinese annexation, and warning that Beijing is trying to erase Taiwanese national identity.