The truth about migrant workers: demonised but in demand, and few of us can live without them

'Stop the boats' is a popular mantra but it obscures the real issues facing rich economies all over the world

- Sam Freedman

Our national debate on immigration is horribly parochial. Broadcasters and politicians go round in circles arguing about how hostile we should be to migrants and what can be done to reduce numbers, with little thought as to why global migration has increased so much or how it has affected other countries.

Take a few steps back and we can see the two biggest global demographic trends colliding with each other at pace, with barely any discussion about what it will mean for countries such as the UK over the coming decades.

Migration has rocketed worldwide, driven by warfare, climate change, rapid population growth in lower-income countries and the relative ease of travel. Since 1990, the number of people living outside the country of their birth has doubled to 300 million.

But as well as greater supply, there has been rising demand. The birthrate in all rich countries, apart from Israel, has fallen well below the replacement rate at which population levels are stable. This is the first time in history there has been a sustained drop in populations without war, famine or disease as a trigger. As a result, more and more countries are becoming dependent on migrant labour to sustain shrinking and ageing workforces.

Germany will need annual net migration of close to 300,000 until 2040 to sustain its labour force.

In the US, immigrants account for about one in five healthcare workers and the sector faced acute staff shortages even before the second Trump administration. In Britain, the care sector emerged from lockdown with record vacancies - and a commensurate need for migrant workers.