The taxwoman cometh... with her sights set on London

More tax hikes seem inevitable in Rachel Reeves's Budget - and the capital is likely to face the worst of them.

- By Jonathan Prynn

There is not yet a date for this year's Autumn Budget. But by convention it is normally a Wednesday, so October 29 and November 5 both look like good bets. For presentational reasons the Chancellor might want to give Bonfire Night a wide berth. The inevitability of Guy Fawkes-themed headlines about taxes “going up like a rocket” or a “bonfire of broken promises” will surely make nervous Treasury spin-doctors urge another day.

Whatever the final choice, there are three months still to go and the summer holiday season is well under way. But Rachel Reeves is certain to be spending much of her time on the sun lounger inking in the broad outline of what is likely to prove a very difficult Budget presentation to MPs and voters.

She is already horribly hemmed in by Labour's manifesto pledge not to increase the rate of income tax, national insurance, corporation tax or VAT — the four biggest revenue raisers.

The Chancellor also told the CBI conference last year that, having unleashed £70 billion of extra public spending and £40 billion of tax hikes in the 2024 Budget, she would “not come back with more borrowing or more taxes”.

But, after a year of disappointing economic growth and bruising U-turns on welfare cuts, there is scarcely an economist in the City who does not believe she will be coming back for a second bite of the fiscal cherry.

Most suggest a further round of tax hikes of at least £15 billion and perhaps as much as £30 billion a year will be needed to keep within her fiscal rules and still leave a modicum of safety margin in case something nasty comes along. As it almost always does.