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Starmer facing point of 'no return' with voters over tax

The Independent

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November 02, 2025

Sir Keir Starmer and Rachel Reeves will face a cabinet backlash if the chancellor breaks Labour's manifesto pledge and raises income tax in the Budget later this month.

- DAVID MADDOX

Starmer facing point of 'no return' with voters over tax

It was reported earlier this week that the Treasury is looking into the possibility of putting up the rate by 2p, while simultaneously cutting national insurance by 2p. Just last month, this newspaper reported that Ms Reeves is considering changes to the top 45p rate.

The Independent has learnt that a number of senior ministers are concerned that breaking the manifesto pledge to not raise income tax, VAT or employee national insurance contributions could prevent any hope of a political recovery, with the party languishing in the polls.

"What those who say we should not stick to that pledge fail to realise is just how important it was in winning the election," a senior minister said.

"Elections are hard to win. They are particularly hard for Labour to win. We don't win many of them. So breaking that pledge comes with significant risk about us losing the trust of voters." Another minister suggested: "We are going to struggle to recover in the polls if people do not believe what we are saying." Among those understood to have raised concerns over tax hikes have been chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster Darren Jones, new welfare secretary Pat McFadden, home secretary Shabana cutting national insurance by 2p. Just last month, this newspaper reported that Ms Reeves is considering changes to the top 45p rate.

The Independent has learnt that a number of senior ministers are concerned that breaking the manifesto pledge to not raise income tax, VAT or employee national insurance contributions could prevent any hope of a political recovery, with the party languishing in the polls.

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