Reeves has no choice but to raid your payslip in Budget

Stubborn inflation and a sputtering economy mean the chancellor must hit ‘working people’, says Chris Blackhurst

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Not for the first time, nor the last, the cry goes up: who would be Rachel Reeves? Most inside the Westminster bubble are able to enjoy a summer break.

But the chancellor and her Treasury colleagues face weeks of agonising as to what lies ahead. Come autumn, she must attend the Labour conference, make her setpiece speech and do rounds of interviews. There is the IMF gathering at which the world's other financiers opine and mark her homework to date. Then there is the Budget.

What Reeves must confront is the knowledge that “faster and further” economic growth is not yielding immediate dividends, if indeed it is happening at all; she will insist it is, but the figures say different. Meanwhile, the fiscal black hole she pointed to as not her fault is actually getting bigger and she can no longer seriously maintain this is entirely due to the Tories. Not after more than a year in office.

A £25bn deficit could rise to near £50bn if the National Institute of Economic and Social Research is to be believed. Significantly, few apart from those in her own team have questioned this figure. Why? Because borrowing has climbed higher than expected and the promised kickstart has not materialised.