'I don't know anyone who is going to vote Labour. They have lied and lied and lied'

Caerphilly was a safe Labour seat, but voters tell Holly Evans they are likely to turn to Reform in tomorrow's by-election

- Holly Evans

There's an old phrase in south Wales: “A one-legged donkey could run for Labour and people around here would still vote for it.”

But on a rainy morning in the former mining town of Caerphilly, it is clear that the saying no longer rings true.

Two days before a crucial by-election, there is no doubt that Sir Keir Starmer will struggle to retain this constituency, which has been considered a Labour stronghold since 1918.

Polls currently show the governing party is heading for a total washout, with a two-horse race emerging between Nigel Farage's right-wing Reform party and the Welsh nationalists, Plaid Cymru.

This could see first minister Eluned Morgan lose her effective majority in the Senedd - which Labour has held for more than 25 years - and lead to serious questions about the prime minister's future, particularly with polls suggesting his party could finish third at next year's Welsh elections.

“That’s the way the country is going, people are fed up,” Jeffrey Letbridge told The Independent. “I’m old enough now to have gone through this time and time again for years. Labour and Conservatives have always been the frontrunners in everything. “Times have changed and they’ve not kept up with that. They’ve not done anything for the country. We’re in a hell of a state.”

A 71-year-old local, the major concerns for him include immigration and the state of the NHS. From the point of view of many of his generation, the Welsh government has failed to bring down waiting lists and improve social care, and their plans to improve the lives of locals have failed to come to fruition.