Has Labour really made the UK's jobs market worse?

Most of the trends in Britain’s jobs market are moving in the wrong direction, according to the latest figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS), which suggest that unemployment is rising and wage growth is stalling. But it would be a mistake to read too much into just one set of numbers.

- JOHN RENTOUL

The figures have been seized on by the Conservatives as confirming that “Labour’s jobs tax” is “putting an intolerable burden on employers”. Helen Whateley, the shadow work and pensions secretary, said: “It’s working people who are paying the price for Labour’s war on business.”

Is Labour’s tax policy to blame?

Not directly, because these new figures only go up to March – the month before the higher national insurance contributions for employers came into effect. Conservatives argue that employers started cutting back their payrolls to prepare for the tax rise, but they also claim that the effect on employment will be even worse now that the increase has taken effect.

All of this is speculation, and it will be many months before we have a clearer idea of the effect of the tax increase. So far, the rise in unemployment has been small, and continuing a gradual trend upwards since the middle of 2022.