Reform on the rise Is Nigel Farage on his way to No 10? Here's what the pollsters say

With Reform UK's popularity growing, some in Westminster believe Nigel Farage could be on course to pull off the biggest earthquake in modern British political history.

- Michael Savage

Not only have recent polls pointed to Reform in effect replacing the Conservatives as the main opposition party, some have even suggested Farage could enter Downing Street if such support was maintained at the next election.

But what exactly are the polls telling us? And how likely is it that such a huge shift will materialise?

Reform's poll lead is persistent, but recent. Its support first matched and overtook Kemi Badenoch's Conservatives at the start of the year. Soon after, it was vying with Labour. It was in April, as voters began to focus on local elections, that Farage's party began to enjoy a solid lead.

The Guardian's latest poll tracker - which takes an average of the polls over the last 10 days - has Reform polling at 31%. This is 10 points ahead of Labour, on 21%.