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Reeves could face £20bn budget hole after forecast
The Guardian
|June 16, 2025
Rachel Reeves is braced for revised forecasts by the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) to blow a £20bn hole in her tax and spending plans before the autumn budget.
Even without changing the totals the chancellor set out in her spending review on Wednesday, a weaker forecast from the Treasury's independent watchdog could force her to find significantly more money at the budget to meet her "non-negotiable" fiscal rules.
Reeves has repeated that flexing her fiscal rules - designed to provide certainty over UK public finances - is not an option even if the economic outlook deteriorates.
At her spring statement, she was due to meet her rules with less than £10bn of headroom, on a total day-to-day spending budget of over £1.3tn.
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