Missing uranium: Have strikes given Iran the ideal excuse to 'dash for a bomb'?

To the surprise of almost no one, all sides declared victory as they formally accepted Donald Trump's announcement of a ceasefire yesterday, but the long-term winners—if any—and losers will take some time to emerge.

- Julian Borger

By midday in the Middle East, the dust had not even settled. More than two hours after the ceasefire was supposed to have started, Israel said it had intercepted at least two missiles coming from Iran heading for the north of the country. Iran denied having launched anything, but Israel vowed devastating retaliation.

Waking up to the news, a furious Trump blamed both sides but reserved particular wrath for Israel, telling it to bring its pilots home and warning that if they dropped their bombs, it would be a "major violation".

The Israeli prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, was reported to be trying to calm the US president down. It is politically damaging for him to be on the wrong side of Trump, and the pressure on him will be intense to return to compliance with the ceasefire.

For its part, Iran had couched the truce as something it had "imposed on the enemy", an instantly suspect appraisal, given the very small number of its missiles that pierced its enemies' defensive shield and the very limited damage it managed to inflict.

Even if Trump manages to get the ceasefire back on track, his bold claim overnight to have secured an enduring peace has been disproved with humiliating speed.

"I think the ceasefire is unlimited. It's going to go forever," Trump told NBC News on Monday night. He had predicted that Israel and Iran would never "be shooting at each other again".

The president's other sweeping assessment, that Iran's nuclear programme had been "obliterated", never to be rebuilt, has been echoed by Netanyahu, albeit a little less emphatically.

Acknowledging the ceasefire, Netanyahu's office issued a statement declaring it had removed "a double existential threat, on both the nuclear issue and regarding ballistic missiles".