Lower-income pupils expected to be hit hardest by 'grade deflation'

A-level and GCSE results gap predicted to widen as pre-Covid regime returns

- Richard Adams

Disadvantaged students are likely to bear the brunt of "grade deflation" when this year's A-level and GCSE results are published, according to experts, who said the government's decision to impose pre-pandemic grading in England was premature.

This week hundreds of thousands of sixth-formers in England, Wales and Northern Ireland will receive the results of their A-levels, BTecs and other exams. But a survey of students by the Social Mobility Foundation (SMF) found those from disadvantaged or low-income backgrounds in England were less likely to have received help to restore learning lost during the Covid pandemic.

As a result, the gap in top grades received by disadvantaged students compared with their better-off peers is expected to widen for the second year in a row, after examination boards were ordered to return to grading last seen in 2019.

"We all feel the desire to say that the impact of Covid needs to be over. But all the evidence shows that it is premature to say that its impact has ended on this generation of young people," said Sarah Atkinson, the SMF's chief executive. "Many young people will be celebrating on Thursday and that's how it should be. But we are afraid that too many young people on low incomes will not get the outcome they deserve.

"These are young people who have done everything that was asked of them. They've worked hard, shown resilience and determination, and they should get the opportunities that they deserve at this stage. There is a risk that they are bearing the burden of this policy.

"We're expecting the attainment gap based on income to grow, and we also saw last year that the regional gaps the north-east compared with London, for example - were wider in terms of top grades. And we are worried that is going to happen again this year."