Cooling labour market adds to dilemma for Reeves as she mulls national insurance rise

Rachel Reeves has dropped a broad hint that she plans to increase employers' national insurance contributions as part the budget.

- Larry Elliott

If the chancellor does go ahead with what is in effect a tax on jobs she will be doing so at a time when the labour market is clearly cooling.

Make no mistake, the labour market is in pretty good shape.

There are a record number of people in work and the jobless rate stands at 4%. The 14 consecutive increases in interest rates between December 2021 and August last year have proved less damaging to jobs than expected. That said, higher borrowing costs have had an impact and that has arrived - after a lag. Job vacancies fell by 34,000 between July and September - the 27th drop in a row and 36% below its peak in May 2022.