Trigger point Shadow war is out in the open and in danger of escalating

For years, Israel and Iran have waged a "shadow war", attacking each other indirectly using proxy forces, assassinations, informants, spies and hybrid, nonmilitary covert means.

- Simon Tisdall

Now this undeclared, largely silent war is out in the open. It's escalating, and there's no end in sight.

This is not to say Israel's largescale air assault on Tehran and other targets inside Iran last Saturday means the two enemies are now engaged in all-out conflict. This is not yet the full-scale, region-wide conflagration so many in the Middle East fear.

Ever since its 1979 Islamic revolution, Iran has volubly supported Palestinian rights and vowed to destroy Israel. It created what the Israelis call an encircling "ring of fire", building an "axis of resistance" involving Shia militias such as Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen and groups in Iraq and Syria - as well as the Sunni Islamists of Hamas.

Ever since 7 October 2023, Israel's hard-right government, led by Benjamin Netanyahu, has gradually, some would say intentionally, expanded the Gaza war to hit back at these groups - and Iran itself. Netanyahu has long viewed the encirclement, especially Hezbollah's rocket attacks and Iran's nuclear programme, as existential threats.