Optimism fades as another winter of war begins

Rumours of rifts at the top, exhaustion after two years of fighting and frustration among allies dampen Kyiv's mood

- Shaun Walker

There is a subtle yet unmistakable sense of gloom in Kyiv at the moment, and not only because of the dark afternoons and plunging mercury of an eastern European November. A number of factors have combined to create perhaps the most downbeat mood about the prospects for a swift and decisive Ukrainian victory over Russia since the first weeks of the full-scale invasion.

"At the end of last year and beginning of this one, there was such euphoria. Now we see the other extreme, the down, and I guess we will see some ups and downs for some time to come," said Bartosz Cichocki, who last month finished a four-year posting as Poland's ambassador in Kyiv.

There are rumours of tensions in Volodymyr Zelenskiy's team, and of a rift between the president and his commander-in-chief. And the much-anticipated summer counteroffensive has been thwarted by impenetrable Russian minefields and fortifications.

The exhaustion of 21 months of fighting, the continued loss of life at the front and frustration at the slow pace with which western partners continue to provide weaponry have combined so that for the first time since the early stages of the war, some voices have quietly pondered the possibility of ceasefire negotiations, while accepting they would be risky and could benefit Russia.

The horror unfolding in the Middle East has taken attention away from Ukraine and slowed down flows of ammunition. There is also increasing "Ukraine fatigue" in western capitals, as well as the looming prospect of a second term for Donald Trump in the US, which could upend support from Kyiv's biggest ally.