History lessons The two steps that could stop societal collapse

Academic Danilo Brozović says studies of failed civilisations all point in one direction-the need for radical transformation to survive

- Damian Carrington

For someone who has examined 361 studies and 73 books on societal collapses, Danilo Brozović's conclusion on what must happen to avoid today's world imploding is both disarmingly simple and a daunting challenge: "We need dramatic social and technological changes."

The collapse of past civilisations, from the Mayan empire to Rapa Nui (Easter Island), has long fascinated people and for obvious reasons how stable is our own society? Does ever-growing complexity in societies or human hubris inevitably lead to oblivion? In the face of the climate crisis, destruction of the natural world, rising geopolitical tensions and more, the question is more urgent than ever.

"More and more academic articles are mentioning the threat of collapse because of climate change," said Brozović at the school of business at the University of Skövde, Sweden. The issue of collapse hooked him after it was raised in a project on business sustainability, which then led to his comprehensive review in 2023.

The field is not short of extreme pessimists. "They believe what we are doing will eventually cause the extinction of the human race," said Brozović.

Some say today's challenges are so great that it is now time humanity comes to terms with extinction, and should even build a vault containing our greatest cultural achievements as a record for some future civilisation.

Others, using data on deforestation and population, rate the chance of catastrophic collapse at 90% or more.

Most scholars are more optimistic, if not actually optimists. "They say collapse for us will just be the end of life as we know it today," said Brozović.

"There will be less globalisation and a lower standard of life, affecting public health very negatively." This raises the question of what is meant by collapse: most agree it is the loss of complex social and political structures over a few decades at most.