Death of the dictatorship? Russians in exile dare to dream of Putin's fall

Is Russia about to experience a period of dramatic political change? If so, can exiled democratic forces unite into a coherent bloc and is there any way for them to force themselves on to the political scene?

- Shaun Walker

Nearly 300 exiled Russian opposition politicians and activists gathered to discuss these questions in the European parliament last week, the congress coming as news broke of the Kakhovka dam destruction, the latest grim episode in Vladimir Putin's war on Ukraine.

The Brussels forum, convened by four MEPs, was the first such gathering to be given official status by a European parliamentary body, as some in Europe start thinking about how the contours of a post-Putin Russia would look.

"EU countries thought that Putin would be president for years and years if not decades and decades... Now, the perception has changed," said Bernard Guetta, a French MEP who was one of the forum's organisers.

Mikhail Khodorkovsky, formerly the richest man in Russia before he was jailed for a decade in 2003, said that simply changing Putin for another person from his system would not make any difference. "This regime should be destroyed," he said during the opening session. "There is no other road to a peaceful normal future for Russia and for Europe and the whole world."

The Russian opposition has been saying this for years, and it can often sound like wishful thinking. But with the Russian army on the back foot, drone strikes and military incursions hitting inside Russia and infighting between the elites spilling into the public domain, some in Europe are also beginning to wonder if Putin is as secure in the Kremlin as they had thought.