Bogged down Aswinter draws in, the talk grows of stalemate and a long conflict

The Ukrainian counteroffensive has stalled, with progress on the two principal axes on the southern front modest since it began on 4 June. Kyiv's forces have advanced about 10km south of Velyka Novosilka and 9km south of Orikhiv and there appears no prospect of a breakthrough as the weather turns.

- Dan Sabbagh

Earlier this month, the reality was acknowledged by Gen Valerii Zaluzhnyi, the commander-in-chief of Kyiv's military. "Just like in the first world war, we have reached the level of technology that puts us into a stalemate," he said in an interview with the Economist.

Ukraine has been unable to break through dense Russian minefields, now laid to a depth of 15 to 20km, Zaluzhnyi said. The Zemledeliye remote truck mine laying system can lay down football fields of mines far faster than dismounted Ukrainian sappers can remove them.

"We all hoped we would make more progress than we have," said Yuriy Sak, a former adviser to Ukraine's defence ministry. "By now we were hoping we would be in control of Tokmak," a strategic town on the road to Melitopol, which still lies 20km south of the furthest Ukrainian advance.

Some blame western politicians for taking so long to supply tanks, long-range missiles and F-16 fighters to Ukraine. "We gave Russians so much time to put in their defences," said Ben Hodges, a former commanding general of the US army in Europe, who warned that hesitancy remains a problem after Boris Pistorius, Germany's defence minister, said last week that Berlin had no firm plans to supply Ukraine with its Taurus long-range missiles.