Phl may grow below 6% amid flip-flopping US tariff policy

Analysts have lowered their gross domestic product (GDP) growth forecast for the Philippines this year, amid the US government’s flip-flopping trade policies.

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In a recent report, Nomura Global Markets Research trimmed its GDP forecast to 5.9% for this year from 6% previously.

“Taking into account the impact of the US reciprocal tariffs, we now forecast a more moderate pickup in GDP growth to 5.9% year on year in 2025 from 5.6% in 2024,” Nomura analysts Euben Paracuelles and Nabila Amani said.

This would be a tad below the Development Budget Coordination Committee’s 6-8% target band for 2025.

First-quarter GDP data will be released on May 8.

Nomura said it revised its growth forecasts after US President Donald J. Trump announced the order to impose reciprocal tariffs on April 2.

Data from Nomura showed the scenarios by which countries in Asia could be affected by varying tariffs.

Under a “bad scenario” or if reciprocal tariffs proceed as planned, including the 125% tariff on China, the export value at risk for the Philippines is 0.5% of GDP.

In a “good scenario” or if only the baseline 10% tariffs are implemented, as well as China’s 125% duty, the Philippines’ export value at risk from tariffs is at 0.4% of GDP.