How tariffs are rocking the world. but not sinking South Africa

WHEN US President Donald Trump announced sweeping new tariffs earlier this year, the move was likened to an economic tsunami, a force capable of shaking global trade foundations.

- ASHLEY LECHMAN

Yet, much like the massive earthquake off Russia’s Kamchatka Peninsula that triggered Pacific tsunami warnings but caused minimal damage, the initial economic shock has not yet unleashed the devastation many feared.

“It is too soon to tell, but so far economic activity inside and outside the US has held up surprisingly well,” said Izak Odendaal, Old Mutual Wealth Investment Strategist.

“Global equity markets are on track for a decent year despite the considerable uncertainty,” Odendaal said.

Global resilience has been buoyed by factors such as stockpiling ahead of tariff deadlines, rate cuts by central banks outside the US, and a weaker dollar that has lowered import costs.

In the US, steady credit conditions, loose fiscal policy, and surging Al-re-lated investment have also provided a cushion.

However, Odendaal warned that the reprieve may be temporary.

“One of the risks is that Trump feels emboldened to push tariffs further. We’ve already seen steep tariffs on countries like India and Brazil for reasons that seem more political than economic,” he said.

South Africa moves to protect US market access

The challenge for South Africa is direct: 30% tariffs now apply to key exports bound for the US.

On Tuesday last week, the government submitted a revised trade offer to Washington in an effort to ease the blow.

Trade, Industry and Competition Minister Parks Tau, alongside Agriculture Minister John Steenhuisen, described the offer as “broad, generous and open”, aimed squarely at meeting US demands outlined in its 2025 National Trade Estimates Report.