PROGRESS SHOULD NOT JUST BE FAST BUT FUTURE-PROOF

The lack of a comprehensive framework to evaluate and predict climate physical risks means that adaptation strategies are reactive rather than proactive in India

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India’s climate future is not written in the stars — it is written in the rising temperatures, erratic monsoons, and intensifying disasters. The question is: what are we doing about it? The World Bank states that more than 80% of India’s population lives in districts at risk of climate-induced disasters. From unrelenting monsoon floods in the north-east to heat-induced crop failures in central India, these events are no longer isolated incidents — they are systemic threats to economic stability, public health, and national security. Yet, despite mounting evidence, India remains vulnerable due to gaps in risk assessment and preparedness. The lack of a comprehensive framework to evaluate and predict climate physical risks (CPRs) means that adaptation strategies are reactive rather than proactive.

Growing climate physical risks

As climate change accelerates, extreme weather events are becoming more frequent and severe. CPRs extend beyond natural disasters, encompassing acute shocks, such as floods and heatwaves, and chronic stresses, such as shifting monsoon patterns and prolonged droughts. While disaster early warning systems and weather forecasts help mitigate immediate losses, CPRs require a long-term approach. Unlike short-term weather forecasts, climate projections analyse long-term trends, enabling policymakers to prepare for evolving climate hazards.

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