Why are interest rates still high when inflation is so low?

INFLATION is something we can’t avoid — it’s a bit like death and taxes. Traditionally, South Africa has had high inflation in comparison with developed countries, and that’s a fundamental reason why the rand has steadily declined against the currencies of those countries. The Covid-19 pandemic upended that trend, and who knows what the effects of US tariffs will be. Whether we return to what now seems was a much safer, more stable world before Covid remains to be seen.

- MARTIN HESSE

As of June, our year-on-year Consumer Price Index inflation rate was 3.0%. Over the years, the SA Reserve Bank (SARB), through controlling interest rates, has done an admirable job of keeping inflation within its target range of 3-6%, for the most part.

In comparison with other African countries, our inflation is low.

Zimbabwe is an obvious example of a collapsing economy with runaway inflation, but even in countries with stable, growing economies, inflation is a problem. Nigeria has inflation of over 22%, according to Trading Economics; Egypt's rate is about 15%; and Rwanda’s is over 8%. Kenya and Namibia are in a similar band to us - their current rates are 3.8% and 3.7% respectively.

Looking further abroad, Brazil's rate is 5.4% and Turkey's is a terrifying 35.1%.

Recently, the SARB has said it wants to bring the inflation target down so that 3% becomes the middle of the target band. Ironically, to do this, it would need to keep interest rates high, and I would suggest that they are too high as it is.

Inflation rate vs interest rate

In the following exercise, I compare the CPI inflation rate with the prevailing interest rate (the bank repurchase, or repo rate, as determined by the SA Reserve Bank). A fair comparison of the two rates involves percentages of percentages, which sounds complicated, but bear with me.

Before Covid, inflation was averaging 4.5%, smack in the middle of the SARB’s target range of 3-6%, and the repo rate was averaging 6.75%. Therefore, the repo rate was 50% higher than the inflation rate.