The consumer’s economic compass: navigating SA’s 2026 landscape

SOUTH Africans stand at a peculiar crossroads as 2026 approaches.

- SANJITH HANNUMAN

After enduring a decade of economic stagnation, analyst JP Landman notes that “the reforms are a journey, but they have started working. Step by step, South Africa is opening its economy, modernising infrastructure and rebuilding credibility”.Yet this cautious optimism collides with harsh realities: unemployment hovering at 32%, crime costing the economy 10% of GDP annually, and the Madlanga Commission’s revelations of deep corruption within our criminal justice system.

For consumers, 2026 will be a year of contrasts — genuine reasons for hope mixed with stubborn structural challenges that won't disappear overnight.

The good news: what consumers can actually look forward to

Relief at the grocery till and interest rate counter

Old Mutual chief economist Johann Els explains that “the South African consumer is in a good position, with cost-of-living pressures easing and household debt stabilising”. Inflation has remained below 4% for most of 2025, with further interest rate cuts expected to bring the repo rate down from its current levels, translating to lower bond repayments, cheaper credit, and more disposable income.

Stanlib chief economist Kevin Lings highlights that “tax revenue collection exceeded budget by R19.7 billion”, with VAT and corporate taxes performing particularly well. This fiscal discipline, combined with S&P’s recent credit rating upgrade to BB with a positive outlook, signals improving economic fundamentals that should support consumer confidence.

The strengthening rand and your purchasing power