Trade & Diplomacy

How do trade wars end? To answer that we have to ask ourselves, how do wars end? The answer is that once begun they are not easy to end.

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Most of the time, trade and diplomacy are conduct-ed outside of the public view. This is not only because of secrecy but also the fact that the details are too boring to interest news debates. What tariff a country charges another on dairy, soya and auto spare parts, and what it should be charging instead is not exciting material. Similarly, the spectacle of 'summit' meetings between leaders, though ultimately insubstantial, steal the show over the more meaningful but more boring meetings over details that diplomats have to resolve disputes.

Disagreements may remain after these meetings but the option of keeping the status quo is the one that is most frequently resorted to. Escalation towards violence is rare.

But when it does come, it is not easy to control. The reasons are that the side that begins it is not the only one that has agency. The other nation's response, its timing, its intensity and its effectiveness are impossible to predict. As boxer Mike Tyson elegantly put it: 'Everyone has a plan until they get punched in the face.'

Wars end either when both sides have had enough, meaning their nations have suffered damage and are unwilling to suffer more. Or they end when one side is strong enough to compel the other one to submit. Much like a school fight between a large child and a smaller one. The little fellow has no option but to give up.