Monetary Policy: It's Best to Hold Rates Steady for the Time Being

RBI should keep price stability in focus to favour the rupee and growth while it manages liquidity and awaits path clarity

- Gaurav Kapur

In its February meeting, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) will deliberate on whether the trajectory of policy rates has reached an inflection point from where an easing cycle can begin. With a new RBI governor at the helm, the MPC will consider the latest information on consumer price index (CPI)-based inflation and GDP growth available since the last meeting. Average headline CPI inflation in the third quarter of 2024-25 at 5.6% was well above the target, though in line with RBI's baseline estimate. The National Statistical Office's first estimate placed real GDP growth at 6.4% in 2024-25, again largely in line with RBI's forecast of 6.6%. Given these in-line outcomes, the MPC will decide the way forward based on its outlook on growth and inflation risks.