Ultimate Guide To The Trump Riddle

Energy purchase, import restrictions, trade talks...Mint decodes the Indo-US spat and its implications

- Dipankar De Sarkar

A fortnight after Donald Trump won the US presidential election in November 2024, Rahul Roy-Chaudhury, a senior fellow at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, was speaking at a global conference on Trump in Naples, Italy. "I noticed that the Europeans were very pessimistic, whereas the Indians were optimistic—cautious, but optimistic. They were upbeat about Trump," said Roy-Chaudhury, a specialist in South Asian affairs, who was presenting a paper on the Indian perspective.

Now, days after Trump announced a stiff new tariff regime and secondary sanctions against India, the London-based strategic analyst wonders, "Did we get that wrong? Were the Europeans right after all?"

He's not the only one left bewildered by Trump's measures—although this story is still developing, with a myriad unknowns that could tip the scales in favour of India. Why us, is a common refrain heard among civil servants and businesses in New Delhi these days, although some say India should have seen this coming, and drawn hard lessons from Trump's first term, when he forced India to lower tariffs on US-made Harley Davidson motorcycles and bourbon whisky.

Back when Trump first made a bid for the US presidency in 2016, India and Indians leapt to his aid. With the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party champing at the bit to craft a new foreign policy that would eject ideology in favour of trade and business, the moment seemed opportune. You could even say auspicious. Some in India publicly prayed for Trump's victory with garlands, chants and conch-shells. In the US, meanwhile, influential Indian-origin supporters of his Republican Party swiftly swung into action helping organise glamorous fund raisers and public meetings.