ONGC needs more than oil rise

Lagging global peers ONGC has declined this month despite rising oil prices, while international oil producers have rallied.

- Ananya Roy [e-mail]

Markets have been unforgiving this month, with the benchmark Nifty 50 index down 9%. But Oil and Natural Gas Corp. Ltd (ONGC) has held up far better, slipping just 4%.

When crude oil prices rise amid geopolitical tensions, upstream companies are usually the first beneficiaries. ONGC, as India's largest government-owned producer of oil and gas, naturally sits on the right side of that trade.

Higher crude, now around $100 a barrel, improves realizations and cushions near term earnings visibility. For every $5 per barrel increase in Brent crude price above $70 per barrel, ONGC’s standalone annual earnings per share (EPS) rises by 14%, as per HDFC Securities. A weaker rupee also helps realizations.

Despite the upside of rising crude prices, public sector undertakings (PSUs) face valuation discounts due to caps on price of natural gas from legacy fields and potential windfall taxes.