Does India need to worry about a decline in its male workforce?

The actual reason behind this trend needs to be ascertained as it could have significant implications for the Indian economy

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The annual Periodic Labour Force Survey (PLFS) reports are probably the most valuable addition to India's official statistical economic database in recent times. Regular labour-market data not only provides a timely assessment of the nation's economy but also aids in making better-informed policy decisions. Since the 2022-23 PLFS report was published in September 2023 (for the year ended June 2023), several commentators have highlighted the decent growth reported in India's total employment, a rising female labour force participation ratio (LFPR) and a higher share of self-employment, often with some conjecture on informal-sector performance. However, there are two nuances that do not appear to have received enough attention.

First, while the LFPR and worker population ratio (WPR) of males aged above 15 years have increased in 2022-23, they have fallen for all ages, and dropped sharply for the prime working age group of 30-59 years. The male LFPR for the 30-59 years group is estimated at 91%, the lowest in the past three decades-versus not just the erstwhile employment-unemployment surveys before the 2017-18 period, but compared to 95-97% in the past five years after annual labour surveys began. The female LFPR for the 30-59 years group, however, has increased to 50.2% in 2022-23, the highest since 2004-05 (it was 39.6% in 2011-12). Similar trends are visible in the WPR as well-up for females aged 30-59 years to 49.4% in 2022-23 from 33.2% in 2017-18, and down to 90.0% from 95.3% for males during the corresponding periods.