Today's world is literally and metaphorically bipolar

India must focus on its economic rise in a world that has the US and China acting as rival poles of power

- NARAYAN RAMACHANDRAN

The United States has become less of a dominant world power over the last two decades. And China has risen to the level of a near-peer adversary to the US, despite spending only a third as much as the US on its annual defence expenditure. This much is true.

The next five countries combined in defence spending—Russia, India, Saudi Arabia, the UK, and Germany—spend about half of what the US does annually. Of course, defence spending alone does not count towards becoming a 'pole'. In strategic terms, a 'pole' is a country that is able to exert its influence over the world or a large region through its military might, trade and economic standards, economic wealth (a reservoir to create future strength), technological superiority and alliances. By this definition, only Russia can even be considered; it has a large nuclear arsenal, abundant natural resources and the ability to exert influence in the vicinity of its large territorial boundaries. But Russia is not really a pole because its economic diversity and wealth are weak, and it cannot sustain its exertion of influence over time.

The European Union (EU), Türkiye, Saudi Arabia, Iran and the UK fancy themselves as poles, but are not big enough, nor wealthy enough, and in any case cannot exert power beyond small areas around their borders.

India and Indonesia are large democracies and economies, but their claim to being poles already is being undercut by competition from China and a domestic need to focus on creating prosperity before joining the high table of power.