Sizzling 2024 to cross 1.5 °C warming threshold

This year will see the increase in the world's average annual temperature breaching the Paris Agreement's threshold of 1.5 degrees Celsius, the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) said on Thursday.

- Jayashree Nandi

Last year, 2023, was 1.48 degrees C warmer than pre-industrial levels, and while experts continue to reiterate that the Paris Agreement's goals refer to long-term warming, and that an individual year or month breaching the limit does not mean a permanent breach, reality, as most people know, is different.

History then, could well mark 2024 as the year when the 1.5 degrees C warming limit was breached for good.

It is now virtually also certain that 2024 will be the warmest year on record, C3S added. The average temperature increase for the rest of 2024 would have to drop to almost zero for 2024 to not be the warmest year, the agency said while adding that October 2024 was the second-warmest October globally, after October 2023.

"It is now virtually certain that 2024 will be the warmest year on record. It is also virtually certain that the annual temperature for 2024 will be more than 1.5°C above the pre-industrial level," said Samantha Burgess, Deputy Director of C3S in a statement.

October 2024 was 1.65 degrees C above the pre-industrial level and was the 15th month in a 16-month period for which the global-average surface air temperature exceeded 1.5 degrees C above pre-industrial levels.

The global-average temperature for the past 12 months (November 2023-October 2024) was 0.74 degrees C above the 1991-2020 average, and an estimated 1.62 degrees C above the 1850-1900 pre-industrial average.