RIFTS SPLIT WIDE OPEN

2023 saw the intensification of old trends: explosion of old conflicts, multilateralism in crisis, growing gulf between the global north and south, along with an American polity under strain

- Prashant Jha

It is a grim world out there.

Old conflicts that were thought to be resolved or managed or buried are back in a violent way, extracting more human toll in a short period than at any time in the last three decades. New technologies offer unknown and expansive possibilities but also real, potentially irreversible, risks. Great power conflict is back, both on the US-Russia and the US-China axes. Multilateralism is in crisis, with the UN's limited abilities to maintain international peace and security visible across domains. The gulf between the global north and south, even if those labels don't exactly fit, is only growing. Rising nationalism, sometimes bordering on xenophobia, is on the rise.

All of it then has led to either the strengthening of western alliances and partnerships, largely due to shared insecurity; or the intensification of open-ended and fluid relationships with multiple partners across much of Asia, Africa and Latin America, largely due to diverse interests, a strategy of balancing and hedging. Global economic structures are in churn, with the rise of protectionism and return to State-backed industrial policies with an eye on boosting domestic manufacturing-in turn a way to create jobs, address restlessness at home, and prepare for the supply chains of the future.

While all these trends have been apparent for a while, 2023 was a year when they intensified. It was also a year which showed the hazards of political forecasting and the role of unanticipated events in altering history. A glance at four key trends offers insights into what happened and hints at what may come.

The big global entanglements

So much of international politics is driven by developments within the American polity.