IMD forecasts patchy but normal monsoon

The monsoon rains will likely be below normal in northwest India, India's weather office said on Friday, raising the prospect of rural distress and inflation should its prediction hold.

- Jayashree Nandi

The region is home to almost a third of India's population, and accounts for around 30% of the value added in agriculture and the country's paddy production.

In its May-end update of the critical southwest monsoon, IMD said monsoon rainfall is expected to be below normal, or less than 92% of long period average over northwest India with an error margin of +/-4%. Over the rest of country, monsoon rainfall is expected to be normal at 94% to 106% of LPA.

There's more bad news monsoon rainfall in June is also expected to be below normal, and across the country, IMD has forecast. That could badly affect sowing of the kharif or monsoon-sown crop.

Overall, monsoon rainfall is expected to be normal over the country at 96% of LPA, with an error margin of +/-5%, IMD said on Friday. The LPA for monsoon is calculated based on rainfall data during 1971 to 2020 which is 87 cm. The monsoon is expected to make onset over Kerala around June 4 with model error of +/-4 days, as forecast by IMD in mid-May, officials said.