India's Post-Pahalgam Strategy and Challenges

New Delhi will have to factor in domestic political compulsions, bilateral impact, and international perception as it debates its options

- Happymon Jacob

Acts of terrorism, particularly against innocent civilians, must not go unpunished. However, any action must be thought through from all angles, as actions in contexts such as this, have significant consequences.

The fundamental question then is this: Can New Delhi effectively respond to the terror act carried out by the Resistance Front (TRF), an offshoot of Pakistan-based terrorist organisation Lashkar-e-Taiba, without compromising its broader strategic interests?

Delhi's responses thus far—including keeping the Indus Waters Treaty in abeyance, closing the Attari border crossing, declaring Pakistan's defence/military, navy, and air advisors in India as persona non grata, and withdrawing its own attaches from Pakistan—fall firmly within the realm of non-military measures.

These actions represent the most effective punitive options available below the military threshold. If India chooses to escalate to the next level, potentially employing military options, decision-makers in Delhi will encounter a series of challenges.

The first set of challenges arises from domestic political considerations: Balancing the need to address public outrage with the benefits of a military response.

There is undoubtedly significant outrage in the country that the BJP-led government would find challenging to ignore, mainly for political reasons.

However, Delhi will face the dilemma of fulfilling public demand for decisive military action while ensuring that any measures it undertakes effectively achieve their intended objectives.

Neither option is easy. If Delhi undertakes covert action for targeted impact, it might not quell public anger; if it engages in overt military action, it could encounter strong resistance from Pakistan, potentially failing to achieve the intended outcomes without costs.